COVID-19 fatality rates
April 2021 – Mortality risk from COVID-19
The constant portrayal of COVID-19 as a threat has caused distortion in people’s perception of their risk of dying from it, if they are unlucky enough to catch it. The risks of dying are dependent on age and comorbidities, e.g.:
|Healthy 35-year-old woman||If unlucky enough to catch coronavirus, chance of surviving = 99.9991%|
The chance of dying is less than the fatality risk of a general anaesthetic for a procedure
|55-year-old man with co-morbidities*||If unlucky enough to catch coronavirus, chance of surviving = 99.2135%|
The chance of dying is less than the risk of an average 55-64 year old dying of any cause this year
|Healthy 75-year-old woman||If unlucky enough to catch coronavirus, chance of surviving = 99.8251%|
The chance of dying is less than the risk of being injured in a car accident each year
|85 year old man with co-morbidities*||If unlucky enough to catch coronavirus, chance of surviving = 79.9154%|
The chance of dying is less than the risk of living for one year in a care home
*comorbidities included in the study were: cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, chronic liver disease, diabetes mellitus, cancers with direct immunosuppression, cancers with possible immunosuppression, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, chronic neurological disorders, sickle cell disorders.
March 26, 2021 -John P A Ioannidis -COVID-19 iFR
All systematic evaluations of seroprevalence data converge that SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is widely spread globally. Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5‐2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries, and locations.
October 14, 2020 -John P A Ioannidis -COVID-19 IFR
Results I included 61 studies (74 estimates) and eight preliminary national estimates. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.02% to 53.40%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 1.63%, corrected values from 0.00% to 1.54%. Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%): the rate was 0.09% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rates less than the global average (< 118 deaths/million), 0.20% in locations with 118–500 COVID-19 deaths/million people and 0.57% in locations with > 500 COVID-19 deaths/million people. In people < 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%.
July 14, 2020 -John P A Ioannidis -COVID-19 iFR inferred from seroprevalence data
John Ioannidis – July 14, 2020.
Objective To estimate the infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from data of seroprevalence studies.
Methods Population studies with sample size of at least 500 and published as peer-reviewed papers or preprints as of July 11, 2020 were retrieved from PubMed, preprint servers, and communications with experts. Studies on blood donors were included, but studies on healthcare workers were excluded.
The studies were assessed for design features and seroprevalence estimates. Infection fatality rate was estimated from each study dividing the number of COVID-19 deaths at a relevant time point by the number of estimated people infected in each relevant region.
Results 36 studies (43 estimates) were identified with usable data to enter into calculations and another 7 preliminary national estimates were also considered for a total of 50 estimates. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.222% to 47%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 1.63% and corrected values ranged from 0.00% to 1.31%. Across 32 different locations, the median infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.24%). Most studies were done in pandemic epicenters with high death tolls. Median corrected IFR was 0.10% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rate less than the global average (<73 deaths per million as of July 12, 2020), 0.27% in locations with 73-500 COVID-19 deaths per million, and 0.90% in locations exceeding 500 COVID-19 deaths per million. Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.57% with median of 0.05% across the different locations (corrected median of 0.04%).
Dr Malcolm Kendrick – How dangerous is COVID19?
26th October 2020 What is the true Infection Fatality Rate.
This article appeared in Russia Today https://www.rt.com/op-ed/504167-facebook-fact-checkers-censorship/ I (Malcolm Kendrick) have made a couple of small changes to it
National Center for Health Statistics – CDC
Updated: August 26, 2020
For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.
Website direct link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
Review of calculated SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rates
Good CDC science versus dubious CDC science, the actual risk that does not justify the “cure” – By Prof Joseph Audi
Introduction by Denis G. Rancourt: In this letter to me, Joseph accomplishes the following points:
– An explanation of the various kinds of fatality rates for a pathogen
– A review of the measured infection fatality rates for SARS-CoV-2
– A demonstration that a recently changed CDC evaluation is most certainly incorrect, along with an illustration of how not to do a meta-analysis
– His conclusion that “the absolute and relative ‘flu-like’ risk of death from a SARS-CoV-2 infection is far too low to rigorously justify governments imposing major disruptions to normal life, let alone the massive and indiscriminate ‘lockdown’ disruptions people have been forced to submit to and endure” —- Joseph Audie, PhD (biophysics), MS (biomedical engineering), BS (bioengineering) is a professor of chemistry.
D. G. Rancourt In a very real sense, a discussion about whether or not the pIFR of SARS-CoV-2 is ≈ 0.26% or ≈ 0.6% is only of academic interest. Put simply, the absolute and relative “flu-like” risk of death from a SARS-CoV-2 infection is far too low to rigorously justify government’s imposing any major disruptions to normal life, let alone the massive and indiscriminate “lockdown” disruptions people have been forced to submit to and endure, as such disruptions will inevitably unleash innumerable forces, including deadly forces, that will reverberate throughout society in predictable an unpredictable ways for years to come.
SARS-CoV-2 poses a significant risk to a well-defined, vulnerable population of elderly and in-firmed people and is a statistical non-issue for the vast majority of people.
This is good news, for it empowers communities to adopt targeted and scientifically-based mitigation strategies, ultimately allowing everyone else to keep working to support their families, communities and the health care system, voluntarily practice standard cold and flu mitigation strategies, and ultimately acquire natural immunity, bring the epidemic to an end, preserve and perpetuate their way of life, and avoid the collateral damage wrought by imposition of the many crude and draconian interventions subsumed under the general term “lockdown”. Full story online at ResearchGate
Predicted COVID-19 fatality rates based on age, sex, comorbidities, and health system capacity
June 07, 2020. – Selene Ghisolfi, Ingvild Ingvild Almas, Justin Sandefur, Tillman von Carnap, Jesse Heitner, Tessa Bold
For those without a comorbidity, the cIFR is effectively zero and flat up to the age of 50, and then increases roughly twenty-fold between 50-59 and 70-79 (from 0.01% to 0.17% for women and from 0.02% to 0.48% for men).
With a comorbidity, the pattern is similar, but because the cIFR is already higher at younger ages, the age-gradient is less steep, roughly doubling the cIFR for each decade above age 50. The difference in the cIFR between patients with and without comorbidities is large but declines rapidly with age: a 30-39 year old is roughly 150 times more likely to die from COVID-19 if they have at least one comorbidity; at age 70 this ratio has decreased to roughly 10.
Finally, the female cIFR is lower than the male cIFR for each age and comorbidity status.
Why is the Covid-19 Death Rate So Low – Dr Eric Berg
Comparing the 1st and 2nd Coronavirus wave