NL 2020 Deceased

The Netherlands Deceased 1995 – 2020

The year 2020 was not the year of a killer virus!

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Copying a sentence from the blog mentioned below “the question one should always ask when seeing these articles/posts on “Excess Deaths” is: Excess to what, exactly….?” 

Professor Eyal Shahar 
As far as I can tell from epidemiology textbooks on my bookshelf, matters have not improved much in the past two decades. Although many authors teach how to compute standardized rates (or probabilities), they don’t solidly explain why the difference between, and the ratio of, two standardized measures of frequency are unconfounded measures of association. Nor do they explain the arbitrary choice of a standard population, and how to reconcile different estimated effects from an infinite number of possible “standards”. Pdf Online

Table of Contents

    Comparing the deceased in the Netherlands in 3 age-groups

    80 plus, 65-80 and <65 years; 1995-2020 year by year comparison.
    All numbers downloaded from the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) database here. The date-stamp on the data is Jan 29, 2021.

    Comparing a dynamic group with absolute numbers, in my view, is a mis-interpretation of the real situation and not a realistic representation. You use these numbers for decision making in a “crisis’ for the purpose of a balanced risk assessment. The reaction to this pandemic is not one of balanced risk assessment but one of worst-case-thinking. Please read “WHO Bulletin 2011 – Health is more than influenza” in this blog-post and you’ll see that we have not learned anything from the past.

    Of-course 2020 has a number of deceased greater than 1950! A population of 17.4 million compared to 10.0 million! 

    Compare the age-group 80+, 2015 <> 2020; 734.976 <> 822.088. 
    Not to mention the number of people that represent 95+ years of age. With an average age of 83 years in the netherlands and a continues growing population of 80+ you do expect people to die reaching 80+.

    Focus 80+ 
    2014 was the year with the lowest deceased percentage since 1995, 10.56%. The year 2000 was the worst with 13.24% deceased in the 80plus age-group. 
    The percentage for 2020 is: 11.64%. Does this percentage represent a crisis caused by a killer virus?

    Focus <65 
    In 2020 this age-group represents 81% of the Dutch population. The total number of deceased is the lowest number (not %) since 1995, except for 2019. In 2020, a total of +713 people deceased, compared to 2019. Representing an increase of 0,004% with an age-group growth of 0,334%. 

    I try to present numbers that are easy to digest. Simple honest numbers that represent the reality! Why do we read fear-mongering headlines in our newspapers, especially the so cold main stream newspapers!? Why do we not hear about these numbers on the Dutch news channels!?

    Samuel Eckert – 2020 Death numbers Netherlands

    Auch in den Niederlanden tobte die Mikrobe. Man hat mit unterschiedlichen Maßnahmen eine Eindämmung versucht. Gegenwärtig hören wir an dieser Stelle leider immer mehr über Ausschreitungen und Gewalt. Wir möchten an dieser Stelle zum Frieden aufrufen und mit unseren Zahlen einen rationalen Ansatz bieten, Menschen zu überzeugen, die noch nicht erkennen konnten, in welchem Kontext diese Zahlen zu bewerten sind.

    Google translate German to English
    The microbe also raged in the Netherlands. Various measures have been taken to try to contain it. At the moment we are unfortunately hearing more and more about riots and violence at this point. At this point we would like to call for peace and with our numbers offer a rational approach to convince people who have not yet been able to recognize the context in which these numbers are to be evaluated.


    The Many Ways “Excess Deaths” (“Överdödlighet”) can fool you

    In these Covid-times, traditional media, as well as various social media warriors, like to present “Excess Deaths” 2020, to either boost or downplay the severity of Covid-19.

    However, the question one should always ask when seeing these articles/posts on “Excess Deaths” is:

    Excess to what, exactly….?

    If you want to draw any meaningful conclusions about the impact of Covid on deaths, you simply can’t take whatever number some analysis presents as “Excess Deaths” as gospel, at least not before you truly understand how that “Excess” is defined, and what the baseline is, how that baseline has been established.

    Blog online

    Our World in Data – Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19)

    On this page we provide an overview of excess mortality along with charts to explore the data. You can learn in more depth about different measures of excess mortality, their strengths and limitations, and their comparability across countries in our work with John Muellbauer and Janine Aron.

    Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causes during a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under ‘normal’ conditions.1 In this case, we’re interested in how the number of deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compares to the deaths we would have expected had the pandemic not occurred — a crucial quantity that cannot be known but can be estimated in several ways.

    Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone. It captures not only the confirmed deaths, but also COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported2 as well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to the overall crisis conditions.3

    CCBYNC Open accessResearch

    Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries

    Different countries have experienced very different numbers of excess deaths.
    Our study adds important insights on the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on total mortality.

    It underscores the importance of availability of age and sex disaggregated data for more nuanced analysis and estimation of the direct and indirect effect of the pandemic.

    A lack of detailed data from lower and middle income countries, especially those in Asia and Africa, calls for a globally coordinated effort to improve the local capacity in collecting and reporting critical vital statistics data promptly to aid evidence based healthcare policy decisions.

    This study provides a detailed and robust assessment of the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on total mortality up to the point that mass vaccination programmes started to become widely available throughout these countries.

    Future work will be needed to understand the impact of national vaccination programmes on mortality in 2021.

    Downloadable PDF

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    Published by TheHorizonX

    When I don’t know things, I don’t think that I do either. Unknown Unknowns specialist; Interested in those I don’t know I don’t know!

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